Forget the barrier draw – Gai’s about to win the Cox Plate. Why Pierro will get her smiling again.

October 27, 2012

When it comes to the Cox Plate, you’re either a fan of the babies, or you’re not.

There’s no middle ground. Some will sing the praises of the best youngsters in the land. Others will smirk when they finish down the track.

Ok, strictly, they’re not really babies. The three-year olds have been around a bit. But compared to the best weight for age horses in the land, babies they are.

No other race gives them such a fighting chance. Yet no other race is so gruelling.

It’s every owners dream to win the Cox Plate. To do it with a three-year old, carrying a tad over 49 kilos, is something again.

They have to be extra-special. Hype horses need not apply. The tiniest chink will be exposed out there. With the older stars grinning as they fly by.

Two months ago, I tipped Pierro. Back then, I thought he was on the way to being our next superstar. The first horse to complete the Golden Slipper/Cox Plate double in the same year.

I’m still tipping Gai’s young champion. But with a little less confidence.

His loss last start wasn’t part of the plan. When the regally bred All Too Hard went past, we gasped as one.

Gai refused to make excuses, but I will. It was a ride that Nash would love to have again. Too bad to be true. Pierro did amazingly well to finish where he did. He was gassed early, and still had the audacity to nearly pinch it.

I’m sticking with him. As others drop off by the minute. And in the ultimate vote of support for youth, I’m tipping a three-year old quinella.

Yep, I reckon the first two from the Caulfield Guineas will fight it out again. Pierro and All Too Hard, neck and neck. With Gai’s favourite just getting there.

That sound you now hear is the roar of disapproval from those who can’t cop such madness. And they may well be laughing at me this afternoon.

The more I look at the field, the more I think it’s lacking in genuine superstars. No Kingston Town in this lot.

Don’t get me wrong. They’re a hugely talented bunch. I’d love to have any one of them in the backyard. I just don’t think they’re unbeatable.

Ocean Park is a genuine threat. Bossy will make sure of that. And my old favourite Shoot Out is a knockout hope at big odds. I reckon they might be fighting over the minor placings.

These three-year olds could be on their way to rare air. With plenty more gripping battles ahead. It might just be a Cox Plate we’ll be talking to our grandkids about.

If I’m right, Gai will forget her troubled week, and hold the Plate aloft. Sadly, without Singo. If I’m wrong, I’m sure you’ll let me know.

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Trust me on this. We’re backing the Cox Plate winner two months early.

September 3, 2011

I think I’ve found a winner.

If you just fell from your chair, dust yourself off. This may never happen again.

It’s not this afternoon, mind you. I’m talking seven weeks away. Our weight-for-age pinnacle. The Cox Plate.

The idea is that we can snap up some juicy fixed odds early. Get ourselves cashed up for the Cup carnival the week after.

Before I tell you this golden tip, some history. My record in this race is abysmal.

I have awful luck at Mooney Valley. On any normal Saturday. Come Cox Plate day, the form guide looks like it’s printed in Egyptian.

It’s unique, this time-honoured event. They take off so bloody early. Forget the luxury of a sweeping straight like Flemington or Eagle Farm.

Our best horses, getting stoked up way before the home bend. Look up gut-buster in your racing dictionary, and you’ll see Cox Plate next to it.

The experts reckon it’s easy. Just pick the best horse. Sounds simple.

And history backs them. Check the honour roll. Phar Lap. Kingston Town. Tulloch. Gunsynd. And just lately, Makybe Diva and So You Think.

Pretty handy, that lot.

But this year is different. Have a look at those entered. With the greatest of respect to connections, it’s not quite a top-notch field.

The great So You Think won’t be back. Forget the other overseas raiders. They’ll be aimed at the Cups.

Whobegotyou is at the top of the market. He’s an old favourite of mine. But a potential Cox Plate winner? I don’t think so.

More Joyous is a wonderful mare. But she’s not Sunline.

The Stradbroke winner Sincero is another that I wrap to anyone who’ll listen. Maybe he could improve enough by late October. Maybe.

So where does that leave us? I’ll tell you where. The three-year olds.

I keep hearing judges way better than me mentioning the youngsters. That this might be a year where they dominate. And I think these wise folk are spot on.

In 2004, the three-year old colt Salvabeel was too good for them. My last Cox Plate winner. At big odds. On a day where the field was anything but classic.

Three years before, I was on Viscount, when he ran third to Northerly. A cracking field that day. He was desperately unlucky.

I backed Samantha Miss too a few years back. Another third.

The weight pull for the three-year olds is always so damn attractive. Gets me time and again.

Which brings us to this year. A field devoid of superstars. And a pair of three-year olds, with the racing world at their flying hooves.

Peter Snowden’s colt Helmet is hulking. Like an overgrown teenager. With manners to match.

He has problems between the ears that must keep the trainer awake well into the night. But boy, can he gallop.

I heard Snowden say on 4TAB a few weeks back that of all the stable performers, it was this bloke he was most excited about.

Anthony Cummings is also excited. Glen Boss too. About another three-year old colt, who could just be our next superstar. Smart Missile.

Cummings reckons the son of Fastnet Rock could be his best ever. Bossy is making comparisons with Lonhro.

His win last weekend was breathtaking. A turn of foot that only the best possess.

True, his barrier habits are a worry. I backed him on Slipper Day, and shed tears via my hip pocket when he was scratched at the start. What might have been.

So, we’ve established that both can go like last week’s pay. And that both have their problems. The question is, who’ll be ready come October 22?

This is where the tip comes in. Yes, it’s taken a while to get here. Is anyone still awake?  If you are snoozing, you’ll be losing.

Because I’m here to declare that Smart Missile can win the Cox Plate. In the weeks ahead, he’ll prove to be one out of the box.

You can back him at 16 to 1, right now. I’m tipping you’ll get half that in a few weeks time, maybe less.

So there it is. Your Cox Plate winner. Nearly two months early. From a bloke who has collected on the race once in the last two decades.

Remember, you read it here first. Except if you’ve been reading all those experts who are also tipping it.

The only certainty, is that if he can carry the weight of my tip, he is a genuine superstar.

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